Florida's housing market this fall: what it means for Sarasota

Florida’s housing market cooled a little this fall while Sarasota and Manatee held firmer. In September 2026 the statewide single-family median rose just 1.2% to $415,000 and closed sales fell 3.5%, while Sarasota County’s median rose 7.8% to $485,000 on more sales (Florida Realtors, September 2026). Condos tell the same story more sharply: statewide supply sits near eight months, and both local counties are near five.

How did Florida’s market do in September 2026?

Statewide, 20,537 single-family homes closed in September 2026, down 3.5% from 21,271 a year earlier, at a median of $415,000. Active listings fell 9.8% to 95,799, and months supply dropped from 5.1 to 4.4. The median house went under contract in 47 days, and sellers received a median of 95.7% of their original list price (Florida Realtors, Florida Single-Family Homes, September 2026).

Condos and townhouses were flat on volume. There were 7,179 closed sales, almost the same as last September, at a median of $293,500, down 1.8%. Inventory fell 9.0% to 60,367 listings, but months supply was still 7.7, down from 9.1 (Florida Realtors, Florida Townhouses and Condos, September 2026).

Distressed sales rose statewide but are still a small share. Florida had 252 foreclosure or bank-owned house sales and 103 short sales in September 2026, up from 167 and 36 a year earlier, out of 20,537 total (Florida Realtors, Florida Single-Family Homes, September 2026). Locally the counts were tiny: 12 and 1 in Sarasota County, and 7 and 4 in Manatee (Florida Realtors county summaries, September 2026). A short sale, once, is a sale for less than the seller owes, with the lender’s approval.

So the state as a whole has fewer listings than a year ago, slightly fewer house sales, prices about flat, and a condo market with a lot of choice for buyers.

How do Sarasota and Manatee compare with the state?

Months supply, once: it’s how long it would take to sell every listed home at the current pace if nothing new came on. Lower numbers favor sellers.

Prices here rose faster than the state, especially in Sarasota County. Local supply is tighter for both houses and condos, and the condo gap is wide: about five months here against 7.7 statewide. The one line where the state looks quicker is days to contract. Local homes took a little longer to go under contract than the state median, even with less supply. The reports don’t say why, and price point and the mix of homes for sale can both play a part.

Why is the condo picture so different here?

Florida’s newer condo safety laws require milestone inspections and structural integrity reserve studies for many condo buildings three stories or taller, and some associations have raised dues or levied special assessments to pay for repairs. Those rules apply statewide, so they don’t explain the gap on their own. What we can say from the numbers is that local condo buyers came back faster: Sarasota County condo sales were up by about a third from last September while the state was flat.

For the full local condo numbers, see the Sarasota County market report and the Manatee County market report.

Where do mortgage rates fit in?

Rates have risen this fall. The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% for the week of October 15, 2026, up from 6.27% a year earlier and from 6.66% at the end of August 2026 (Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey). Many September closings reflect contracts signed in July and August, when rates were lower, so the jump hasn’t shown up in these sales numbers yet. October and November reports will show whether higher rates slow contracts. We work through the payment math in what today’s mortgage rates mean for Sarasota buyers and sellers.

Cash softens the effect locally. With about 42% of Sarasota County house sales and 63% of condo sales paid in cash in September 2026, a big part of the local market doesn’t depend on a loan at all.

What are we hearing from clients?

[NEEDS RICHARD: a real example (no names) of how a buyer or seller from elsewhere in Florida compared Sarasota or Manatee with their home market this fall]

What this means for sellers, buyers and rental owners

Sellers. The statewide numbers point to a flatter Florida market, but they don’t describe Sarasota and Manatee well right now. Local supply is tighter and local prices rose faster. That still isn’t permission to overprice. Sellers here received a median of 94 to 96% of their first asking price on houses and 91 to 93% on condos. Price off recent sales near you. Our home value form gets you a written pricing opinion, usually within 24 hours.

Buyers. If you’re comparing Sarasota with other parts of Florida, expect to pay more here and to have fewer homes to choose from, especially single-family. Condos give you more room locally, and statewide they give you a lot more. Rising rates make payment math matter more than price alone, so start with a buyer consultation.

Rental owners. A firmer local market means a reasonable sale price is there for owners who want out. For owners who want to keep the home, higher rates can keep some would-be buyers renting longer. We don’t have a sourced number for that, so treat it as something to test with a real rent range for your home. Our free rental analysis puts a sale price and rent range side by side.

What’s the next step?

Statewide numbers are background. To see what this market means for one specific home, fill out our home value form, or browse the areas we cover if you’re still deciding where to look.